Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
