Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
